Business area outlook for Q2 2025 as provided in the Q1 2025 presentation:

Bauxite & Alumina

• Lower alumina price
• Production volume at nameplate capacity
• Higher sales volume
• Higher fixed costs of between NOK 200-300 million
• Higher raw material cost in the range of NOK 100-200 million

Important takeaways from the Q1 2025 Earnings Call:
“ For Q2, Alunorte’s production volume is expected around nameplate capacity. We further expect higher sales volume, compensating for delayed alumina shipments in Q1.The effect of further decreasing alumina prices in Q1 is expected to be realized in Q2. 
We expect higher raw material costs in the range of NOK 100 to 200 million, depending on how raw material prices develop.  Fixed and other costs are expected to increase by around NOK 200-300 million, largely driven by seasonally higher maintenance and inflation.”

Aluminium Metal

• ~65% of primary production including strategic hedge effects for Q2 2025 priced at USD 2 617 per mt.
• ~52% of premiums affecting Q2 2025 booked at USD ~ 439 per mt.
• Q2 realized premium expected in the range of USD 370 and 420 per mt.
• Lower alumina costs of between NOK 1 billion and NOK 1.1 billion including strategic hedge effect, partly offset by increase in carbon costs of around NOK 100 million and reversal of additional NOK 180 million in CO2 compensation for 2024.
• NOK 850 million per quarter in CO2 compensation going forward
• Higher fixed costs due to R&D decarbonization of NOK 50-100 million driven by postponed decarbonization projects from Q1.
• Negative currency effect

Important takeaways from the Q1 2025 Earnings Call:
“For Q2, AM has booked 65% of the primary production at 2 617 USD per tonne. This includes the effect of our strategic hedging program. Premiums in Europe have continued to soften into Q2. We have booked ~52% of the premiums affecting Q2 at 439 USD per tonne. We expect realized premium in the range of 370 and 420 USD per tonne.

On the positive side we expect a net decrease in raw material costs of between NOK 800 and 900 million, driven by lower alumina cost. The alumina cost decrease is expected to be between NOK 1 billion and 1.1 billion. This number includes the effect of our internal alumina hedge with B&A.  The alumina cost release is expected to be partly offset by the reversal of the additional NOK 180 million in CO2 compensation for 2024 booked in Q1.  Further, we estimate approximately NOK 850 million in CO2 compensation for quarters going forward. Carbon costs are expected to increase by about NOK 100 million.  

We expect fixed cost to increase between NOK 50 and 100 million, driven by the previously mentioned postponed decarbonization projects from Q1. Sales volumes are expected to remain stable.”

Metal Markets

• Seasonally higher volumes in recycling
• Recycling margins broadly in line with Q1 levels in local currencies
• Higher contribution from sourcing and trading activities
• Continued volatile trading and currency effects
• Guidance for 2025 full year Commercial Adjusted EBITDA excl. currency and inventory valuation effects of NOK 400 - 600 million

Important takeaways from the Q1 2025 Earnings Call:
“For Q2, Recycling margins are expected to remain broadly in line with Q1 levels in local currencies, with a modest seasonal increase in volume.

In our Commercial segment, we anticipate a higher contribution from sourcing and trading activities in Q2 as well as positive currency effects.  

As always, we emphasize the inherent volatility of trading and currency fluctuations. And we continue to guide for a Commercial Adjusted EBITDA excl. currency and inventory valuation effects of NOK 400 - 600 million for the full year 2025.”

Extrusions

• Stable sales margins
• Pressured sales margins
• Favorable fixed costs
• Soft extrusion markets

Important takeaways from the Q1 2025 Earnings Call:
“Looking into Q2 we should look towards the same quarter last year to capture the seasonal developments in Extrusions.  

Compared to last year, due to continued soft extrusions markets in both Europe and North America, we expect relatively flat sales volumes. This is in line with CRU estimates for volume development YoY of minus 1% for Europe and plus 1% for North America for the quarter.

We also expect continued pressure in both extrusions’ margins and recycling margins which is expected to be partially offset by decreased fixed costs.  Given the combination of margin and volume pressure we expect the negatives to more than offset the positives in Q2 when comparing year-over-year. ”

Energy

• Lower production
• Seasonally lower prices
• Price and volume uncertainty

Important takeaways from the Q1 2025 Earnings Call:
“Looking into Q2, as always, we should be aware of the inherent price and volume uncertainty in Energy.  

For the next quarter, production volumes and prices are expected to decrease, mainly due to seasonally lower consumption.

Furthermore, we expect the price area difference results to be at similar levels as in Q1. The price area gain was NOK 150 million in Q1."

Additional information

The latest available price and currency sensitivities for earnings (as well as information on the price time lags for revenues and costs), are included in the NHY Q1 2025 Presentation.

Publicly available information regarding the market prices and currency developments in Q2

(Please note that these numbers are from 18.06.2025 and are meant to be updated by quarter's ending)

	Q2-25	Q1-25	QoQ	YoY
Average LME 3M market rate1)	2,447	2,625	-7%	-5%
Average PAX fob Australia (USD/t) 2)	355	516	-31%	-18%
Energy prices3)
Nordic system NOK/MWh	326	531	-39%	-20%
NO5 NOK/MWh	480	637	-25%	2%
NO2 NOK/MWh	692	776	-11%	33%
NO3 NOK/MWh	150	271	-45%	-57%
SE1 NOK/MWh	123	183	-33%	-60%
SE2 NOK/MWh	133	172	-23%	-57%
NO2 vs NO3 NOK/MWh	542	505	7%	227%
Currencies4)
Average NOK/USD	10,33	11,08	-7%	-4%
Average BRL/NOK	1,82	1,89	-4%	-12%
Average NOK/EUR	11,66	11,65	0%	1%
Average BRL/USD	5,69	5,86	-3%	9%

Please note that these figures have been updated to reflect the full 1st quarter. 

1) Realized price in AM lags LME market rate with 1-2 months
2) Alumina prices in B&A are realized with approx. one month lag, in AM with 2-3 months lag
3) Source: Nordpool
4) Source: Norges Bank